Australia’s Best Horse Racing Predictor

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Hi I’m Nick Hluchaniuk and today I’m joined
by Sam Twomey Head of Product here at Welcome Sam. We’re going to take a look today
at probably the most popular tool we’ve got on our website. It is the Predictor
tool. Firstly for couple of the people out there who may not be aware of it what is it
and where can we find it? Well we can find the Predictor tool on any
race on any meeting. As you can see, go to Coff’s harbour today into race 7. The Predictor
tab is next to the form tab. And what the Predictor Tool does it evaluates every runner’s
chance of winning a race based on a number of form factors and the impact those form
factors have on a runner’s likelihood of winning a race. Now in regards to those form factors that
you can see there we’ve got a default setting. Can you explain a little bit about that? That’s right so our data scientists crunched
a number of combinations and a number of different form factors and the impact those form factors
have on a runner’s performance and the combination that had the most positive return on investment
over a long period of time was the default settings that we went with. Now obviously that’s going pretty well but
obviously punters all have their unique way to do form. Why would a punter want to change
these settings? Exactly so the default settings over about
a 3 year period is just about a touch under 1% return of investment which isn’t bad considering
that it’s really predicting the outcome of every race at every meeting. But if punters
want to improve their chances based on the form factors they find the most important
they can really move the slider to whatever they like. And what they think the weighting
should be. And then the
predictor will update accordingly. So when a punter’s probably found the form
factor they like is there a way that they can save it so that for each race it comes
up the same every time? That’s right. Punters can now go in, make
the changes they want, save those presets, and then every race they go to those presets
will be saved. Personally I like ‘jockey wins’ as one of
my presets so I select that on almost all races and the predictor updates accordingly. So we might take a look at a specific race,
we’ve got Moonee Valley coming up on a Friday night, and just have a look at the way we
can build the presets. If you’re not familiar with Moonee Valley it’s a unique circuit.
It’s one that if a horse has had a good record at the track previously it’s a really good
sign because a lot of horses don’t handle it. So how would we sort of show that on the
Predictor settings? Same way, go into say Moonee Valley race 7,
into the Predictor, bring up the default settings, so this is the jockey wins that was down,
take that back down to the usual 20%, take the track rating all the way up to 100%, save
that. And that will be there not only for this race but going forward. So you just got to be logged in and every
time it will be there? Exactly right. Beautiful. Now clearly one form factor which is a major
consideration is the track. Whether it’s been raining if you’ve got a heavy track. Can you
show how that work’s and I can see the percentages there. Can you give a little explanation if
you’re putting it at 50% or 100% what that actually means? So what the percentages do is they really
rank the form factors and how strong they should be an indicator of what the Predictor
returns as an overall result. So if we moved the late speed back to the
default setting and then on a heavy track like you said we only want to factor in heavy
tracks and nothing else. You can move firm track, good track, soft track and synthetic
track all down to 0% so they won’t be factored at all. And then heavy track up to a 100%
so that will be the most significant rating as it compares to all the other ratings we’ve
entered in. You apply that setting and Come Back Order, Moonee Valley Race 7, is seen
as a heavy track specialist. It’ll show you all the mudlarks there you
should be backing on a heavy track. Very good. Now so we’ve seen really that we’ve got a
default setting, which has got a good return on investment really, given it’s a default
setting, you get that if you’re logged in but punter’s can obviously make their own
choices with their form factors. Exactly. Beautiful.


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