Cheltenham v Standard Betfair Horse Racing Trading (Betfair)


Betfair trading at the Cheltenham
Festival just isn’t like standard horse-racing if you’re not ready for it
more experienced traders like myself are going to end up exploiting you I’m sorry
it’s just a truth so in this clip I’m going to share three tips they’ll help
you avoid getting exploited by people who have done it before so you only got
one shot at this year and I want to get straight into three points without
beating around the bush so what are they first of all why is Cheltenham trading
so different to standard horse-racing trading on Betfair exchange secondly
what must you do different to compensate for the different market characteristics
the different goings-on within the markets in order to maximise yourself
and leave yourself less vulnerable to predators within the market and thirdly
we’ll share a quick comparison on-screen between the two just so you can see it
visually and it’s very clear in one warm set now for anybody that’s new to
trading you should or people that have already been watching this channel
should already know that all profitable trading comes from imbalances within the
market and exploiting those imbalances so you know where there’s change there’s
opportunity and where there’s an imbalance is usually an opportunity to
fortunately with Cheltenham it’s a large opportunity because there is so
much betting volume that passes through the markets however you can’t treat each
situation the same not every segment of time down to post is worth the same
amount and therefore when the opportunity is there you need to be
fearless and striking use larger stakes so it’s completely crucial that you
understand the market characteristics particularly the changes in those
characteristics so number one what is the difference between standard
horse-racing trading and Cheltenham trading on Betfair’s exchange first of
all there’s a popular is I’ve kind of already alluded to there there’s
more industry hype there’s more coverage in the media there’s more betting money
flowing into the market when it is flowing into market
typically the average stake increases to the general public actually bet more
coverage is more drawn-out than your standard horse-racing so you do have a
slightly larger trading window down to the start of the race
although the peak volume is still towards the the end of that that trading
window right at the start of the race and sometimes just after the start of
the race especially if there’s a full start or the race is delayed with all of
this hype also comes increased kind of like waffle and punditry on the TV you
can’t follow anyone for that it’s their job at the end of the day but you need
to make sure that you’re focusing on the bright spots focusing on the right areas
and exploiting those and leaving the rest so if it’s your first Cheltenham
trading I would say to avoid confusion maybe don’t trade or trade them
significantly less or set yourself a rule to trade on far lower stakes on the
races in between the Cheltenham races the bright spots will be the Cheltenham
races and it’s hard to switch from kind of one mode to another mode from one
race to the other okay it makes sense this kind of life you you’re practicing
training in the gym you’re lifting heavy weights and then all of a sudden you’re
gonna do some kind of endurance work it just all becomes very confusing to
change especially ten minutes doing one thing and then ten minutes doing another
so focus on one main area or perhaps do it their way run focus on the standard
racing if that’s what you used to watch the children markets and try to
understand them but be aware that they complete changes and they change and
changes back and so forth through that for early afternoon volumes increase
drastically which is the main difference between the two market types so you can
use larger stakes over shorter periods of time and particularly when you’re
scalping stuff like that obviously scalping is my
main area of expertise anybody that’s followed me over time so you probably
want to focus on scalping I might be slightly biased in saying that because
it’s you know that’s what I like to do but you want to focus down near close to
the start scalping and absorbing that brilliant market liquidy that’s peaking
and increasing and all the extra matching because there’s more
information at the Cheltenham festival there’s more hype and there’s more media
research from work and formal that kind of stuff and you’ve got higher profile
horses get into it there tends to be more information as well which also has
a knock-on effect and market characteristics in the sense that prices
are typically more stable so there’s less movement in terms of the price and
money turned over at those prices but they are the main differences excluding
one other thing which is very important so with all of this extra activity on
Betfairs exchange and other exchanges pro traders know this I know this the
general public know this and so there’s a lot more unmatched money in the market
so if you go back to what I said earlier on in this video about balances then
you’ve got to remember that there’s a lot more unmatched money in the market –
so a little tip or a little hint if you like without going too heavy on it
because this is YouTube but if you focus on areas where there’s a little bit less
unmatched money but there is increased match money that would be more of an
imbalance and so that would be an area to focus on particularly near the start
of a race so the second point and what do we need to do to compensate I’ve
already started to sort of touch on this I guess there with that last point about
the unmatched money and the match money you need to adapt your style okay you
need to adapt your approach to the markets you need to be very risk-averse
and focus on the positive characteristics within the market like I
said increased volume increased stakes so scalping increased stakes late on
stuff like that you do need to avoid over staking though because the other
thing is people get too excited at Cheltenham it’s only one week of the year
yes there’s a lot of coverage you’ll see all the premium channels covering it a
lot of people getting excited about certain horses and stuff like that and
sometimes there can be a chain reaction in the media in when certain things
happen in a certain horse or yard or trainer or jockey combo is focused on
but you need to just make sure that you don’t over expose yourself and over
stake and get part of that fanaticism and hype and excitement because the end
of day fanaticism is the opposite of value
is people giving away value and deluding themselves and then finally I mean it
comes back to the unmatched match thing again yes there’s more money turned over
yes there’s more under much money in the market and that also means that you have
to wait longer in the queue positions in the betting exchanges so you may need to
be patient at points in time you make to sit there and feel a little bit more
uncomfortable of an open position where you’re waiting for the other side of
that trade to get matched that is a common characteristic a common
frustration for people that are trading their first Cheltenham so being impatient
you can often put yourself in a position of vulnerability and you know of alluded
this many times in different videos particularly on those filler races
something I mentioned earlier in this video as well the people that are more
experienced will actually spot that and they’ll probably try and get more money
out of you or lead you into more panic and so they can exploit that for
themselves it might sound a little bit sad at the other day it’s the game
everybody’s against each other and the third point is that I’m going to show
you it on screen so we’ll do that in a second but before I do that there’s one
or two things I just want to sort of highlight for you to remember right you
don’t have to win every single situation and you don’t have to win every single
Cheltenham race you don’t even have to participate in every single race okay so
pick your battles very carefully use when you’re confident stake up when
you’re not sit on your hands you don’t have to be involved everybody feels like
they have to be involved constantly and that is actually an advantage in itself
picking and choosing the places and only playing when you know there’s a far
increased chance of you actually winning too many go into the week thinking that
they’re going to come out of it making a fortune and yes you may and you can and
I have in the past but going into that is counterproductive going into the week
with that mindset it’s counterproductive it makes you behave differently on the
back end because you go in with different expectations so avoid that
because you know you’ll be screwing yourself over and I mean finally really
just methodical don’t take excessive risk
unless you really have to but in fact don’t don’t take excessive risk at all
there shouldn’t really be a situation where you really have to if you do find
yourself doing that takes that back stop call off give yourself a few minutes to
think it through and you know come back with a fresh set of eyes and fresh fresh
feeling on the situation so that’s what we’ll show you the the difference on
screen now if you want any extra help with scalping throughout the week check
out the links that will put above and below to help you on your journey with
improving and developing your scalping on Betfairs exchange you


8 Responses

  1. Goran Nikolovski

    February 28, 2020 9:03 pm

    Cann berry i know a bloke in Turkey that does hair transplant.. you seem to have plent of wins and money.. hell make your hair look like orlando bloom for 2k

  2. Happy Times

    February 28, 2020 10:45 pm

    Do you think the festival will still go ahead? Seems all the talk is that every sporting event will be cancelled due to cor' virus

  3. Simples Meerkat

    February 28, 2020 11:12 pm

    Even today I have felt it took longer to match compared to the rest of the week so thank you for this info. After a few weeks of scalping I find I am able to look at a race with different eyes…like I see things I never bothered seeing while only matched betting and I can look at the graph and say nah I’m not doing that one…whereas a few weeks ago I would have and would probs have lost. I have refined my little technique like being self critical and seeing where I was going wrongs and altering it slightly for the next day and seeing it worked. Yes adapting…you said it. I have been slowly increasing stakes and sometimes minimising increments to fit what was happening at the time. Anyway I guess I’m really just saying thank you again. This week has been better than the last few weeks put together for a newbie! Lol

  4. John T

    February 29, 2020 9:23 am

    I'd add , a move in price is usually a true move , not manipulation like is normal day – to – day so best to get out the market quick.


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